In a surprise move, the Defense Subcommittee of the US House of Representatives Appropriations Committee has inserted language in its markup of the USAF’s Fiscal 2025 budget request, that would prevent retirement of the U-2. The service must not “divest or prepare to divest” any U-2 aircraft, it said. A Congressional source with good knowledge of the Dragon Lady told me that the full House Appropriations Committee will probably endorse this clause.

It is not yet clear whether the Senate Appropriations Committee will follow suit. If it does not, the issue must be decided by a conference of the two houses. Four senators on the Senate Armed Services Committee recently voiced their concern over the retirement of the U-2 and other airborne ISR platforms. But their letter to the Secretary of Defense was passed to Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall to respond. His reply was predictably vague and unhelpful.

Kendall said that USAF plans to modernise ISR “would maintain an airborne layer, which will complement the space-based layer.” This mix would “deliver greater sensing and targeting abilities, at scale, in denied areas.”

In recent years, the whole process of approving the federal budget has dragged on beyond the start of the fiscal year. If that happens this time, the Presidential election could cause further delay, and even some changes to the Pentagon’s FY2025 budget request.

A document on force structure changes for FY2025 that the Pentagon sent to Congress in April, stated that “the USAF will fleet-divest the remaining 31 U-2 aircraft starting October 1, 2026.” I have been told that this was a mistake: the year should have been 2025, and in fact the USAF is sticking to its plan to end U-2 operations in October of next year.

Meanwhile, a separate consultation on USAF divestments is due to be completed shortly. It will include the opinions of the combatant commanders (COCOMS). The Congressional source told me that “some pushback is expected.” During the USAF’s previous attempts to retire the U-2, pressure from the COCOMs got the decision reversed.

Despite the latest language from the House preventing divestment of any U-2s, that process has already begun. Five are now grounded at Beale, and another three at Palmdale, where the USAF has told the Skunk Works to stop work on their depot overhauls. But the House action applies to FY2025, so in theory, the USAF could continue to retire U-2s until the end of the current fiscal year. The training program is already running down. The last class of new pilots is due to graduate in July. Lockheed has closed a second depot overhaul dock at Beale that had competed one aircraft, and was preparing to do a second. The workers have been terminated, or offered jobs at other Lockheed Martin facilities.

At Palmdale, the Skunk Works has been told that it can continue test flights of the prototype jet carrying the Avionics Tech Refresh (ATR). But no more aircraft are being made available for conversion, despite the USAF having issued a contract for the first eight ATRs.  

(updated 7th June to include SecAF Kendall’s response to the letter from Sen Cramer et al)