In its Fiscal Year 2024 budget request earlier this year, the US Air Force indicated a U-2 retirement date in FY 2026. However, HQ USAF said last week that the plan is to end operations in the very first month of FY2026, eg October 2025.

In a written response to my questions about the planned retirement that was facilitated by Ken Bray, a former U-2 pilot who is now the Associate Deputy Chief of Staff for ISR, HQ USAF said that the service has not yet sent the written certification to Congress, that is required to overturn a provision in the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This prohibits retirement of the U-2 until USAF can certify that a less costly but equally or better capable replacement is available. The waiver is “still in staffing”.

Previous attempts by the USAF to retire the U-2 have not only been foiled by Congress, but also by objections from the Combatant Commanders (COCOMs). Members of the U-2 Brotherhood are hoping for similar interventions this time. But the USAF told me that “as a matter of course, the Joint Staff has solicited input from the Combatant Commands and the USAF conducts on-going engagements with the Combatant Commands to articulate the capabilities and associated timelines that will mitigate the divestment of legacy assets.”

If the USAF gets its way and keeps to its timescale, it seems logical to immediately begin running down the training program for new pilots, and Periodic Deport Maintenance at Palmdale and Beale. “After delivery of the certification to Congress, the USAF will establish a deliberate plan to manage the drawdown of the U-2 fleet, program closeout, and redistribution of manpower,” it said.

But what does not seem logical is that an “Avionics Technical Refresh” (ATR) for the U-2 is underway at the Skunk Works. This updates the aircraft’s navigation and communications systems, and cockpit displays, including touch screens. It also provides a new mission computer that is compliant with the USAF’s Open Mission Systems (OMS) standards.

In a recent press release, Lockheed Martin announced the maiden flight of the first ATR-modified jet. Sean Thatcher, the ATR program manager at Palmdale, said this first flight “is a significant moment in our journey to rapidly and affordably field new capabilities. Further testing will solidify a mature software baseline before mission systems are introduced.” The contract to upgrade eight aircraft with the ATR was awarded in 2020 and is worth $50 million, according to Lockheed Martin.

Furthermore, that sum does not include upgrades to the U-2 sensors, and other improvements, many of which I listed here. From examining the budget documents, I conclude that some $412 million has been spent to date on the ASARS 2B/C imaging radar, with a new active antenna and processor, including RDT&E.

Then there is all the other RDT&E plus procurement spending on the U-2 in recent years (“prior years” according to the budget documents, plus FYs 2022 and 2023). This comes to nearly $790 million. And in FY 2024, the projected spend is $44.1 million on ASARS-2B/C and $29.5 million on the ATR, which is going onto eight aircraft. But the first two are not scheduled join the operational fleet until July next year – just over one year before that fleet is phased out.

In all, these are extraordinary sums for an aircraft that is being retired so soon.

The USAF says publicly that satellite reconnaissance can replace the U-2. But it also plans to replace the Dragon Lady with the still-classified Penetrating-ISR UAV. HQ USAF declined to answer my question on the status of what has become known as The White Bat, for “national security reasons”.